State of States 2025
A Decade of Fiscal Performance Analysis Across Nigeria
Ten years of BudgIT’s State of States report reveals a complex fiscal landscape across Nigeria’s 35 states (excluding Rivers State due to emergency declaration). While total revenues have surged dramatically, the story behind these numbers is one of both progress and persistent challenges.
The 2025 report assesses states based on four key indices: ability to fund operations with internally generated revenue, revenue adequacy for expenses and loans, debt sustainability, and capital expenditure prioritization.
Revenue Growth (2022-2024)
Total state revenues grew from N6.6 trillion in 2022 to N14.4 trillion in 2024, a remarkable 118% increase. However, this growth masks continued heavy reliance on federal transfers.
2025 Fiscal Performance Rankings
The 2025 rankings reveal significant shifts in state fiscal performance, with some states making impressive gains while others fell behind.
Top 5 Performers
- Anambra (↑ from #2)
- Lagos (maintained #2)
- Kwara (↑ from #4)
- Abia (↑ from #17)
- Edo (new to top 5)
Notable Movers
- Akwa Ibom (↑ 17 positions)
- Zamfara (↑ 9 positions)
- Cross River (↓ 25 positions)
- Imo (↑ 6 positions)
Debt Sustainability Leaders
- Akwa Ibom
- Delta
- Bayelsa
- Zamfara
- Yobe
Revenue Realities: IGR vs Federal Allocations
Top IGR Growth Performers (Year-on-Year)
Expenditure Patterns
A positive shift emerged in 2024 as total capital expenditure (N7.63tn) exceeded recurrent spending by N1.26 trillion—reversing the 2023 trend where recurrent spending was N600 billion higher.
States Prioritizing Capital Expenditure
- Abia 77.05%
- Anambra 75.32%
- Enugu 72.83%
- Ebonyi 73.74%
- Taraba 70%+
Debt Dynamics
Total subnational debt grew modestly from N9.89 trillion (2023) to N10.57 trillion (2024)—a 6.8% increase, much slower than the previous year’s 36.41% jump.
Social Sector Spending
Critical sectors like education and health show concerning implementation gaps despite increased budgets.
Only 9 states implemented over 80% of their education budgets, and just 7 states achieved this for health budgets.
Regional Performance Highlights
South-West
- Lagos maintains economic dominance
- Faces debt sustainability challenges (ranked 32nd)
- Least FAAC-dependent state
South-East
- Enugu leads in IGR growth (381.44%)
- Anambra tops overall performance ranking
- Abia shows remarkable improvement
South-South
- Akwa Ibom shows remarkable improvement
- Top in debt sustainability ranking
- Delta receives highest FAAC allocation
Northern Regions
- Kwara emerges as top performer (3rd overall)
- Mixed performance across states
- Zamfara shows significant improvement
Looking Ahead
As states receive unprecedented naira allocations due to exchange rate adjustments, the challenge remains transforming these resources into sustainable development. The next decade will test whether increased revenues can translate into better infrastructure, human capital development, and reduced poverty across Nigeria’s diverse states.
The 2025 State of States report highlights both progress and persistent challenges. While some states have made impressive gains in fiscal management, heavy reliance on federal transfers remains a vulnerability for most. The increasing prioritization of capital expenditure is a positive trend that could yield long-term benefits if sustained and effectively implemented.
Data Source: BudgIT State of States Report 2025 | Analysis: Hussaini Umar
