Climate Change and Food Security in Northern Nigeria – Data Unveiled

Climate Change Intensifies Food Security Crisis in Northern Nigeria

Data analysis reveals how climate impacts are threatening food production for millions

Source: Research by Usman Sambo & Babayo Sule published in Green and Low-Carbon Economy

Data Analysis by: Hussaini Umar | Published: 2025

Food Security Crisis Overview

Northern Nigeria, historically known as the country’s food basket, is facing an unprecedented food security crisis driven largely by climate change. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and environmental degradation are threatening agricultural productivity and livelihoods for over 115 million people in the region.

19.4M

Nigerians facing food insecurity

40%

Decline in farming output in Northeast

90%

Shrinkage of Lake Chad since 1960s

$750M

Annual food loss value

Climate Trends in Nigeria

Scientific evidence shows Nigeria’s climate has changed significantly over the past six decades, with Northern regions experiencing the most severe impacts:

Northern Nigeria

Average temperature: 12-45°C
Annual rainfall: 500mm
Rainy season: April-October
High vulnerability to drought

Southern Nigeria

Average temperature: 17-37°C
Annual rainfall: 3,000mm
Rainy season: February-November
High vulnerability to flooding

Agricultural Impact

With 70% of Nigerians engaged in agriculture (mostly at subsistence level), climate change poses an existential threat to food production systems:

Key Findings

Maize production faces revenue decline of ₦4,281 per hectare for each 1°C temperature increase
Only 2.5% of Nigeria’s arable land is cultivated due to climate constraints
Cereal production declined by over 40% in the 2022 season
Northern Nigeria produces 70% of the country’s total food output

Lake Chad Depletion

The shrinking of Lake Chad represents one of Africa’s most dramatic ecological disasters with profound implications for regional food security:

Once Africa’s fourth largest body of water, Lake Chad has shrunk by 90% since the 1960s, from 26,000 km² to less than 1,350 km² today. This depletion has:

Displaced over 2.5 million people in the basin region
Eliminated fishing livelihoods that once provided 200,000 metric tons of fish annually
Reduced irrigation capacity for farming communities
Intensified conflicts between farmers and herders over dwindling resources

Food Security Dimensions

Climate change affects food security through four key dimensions, all of which are negatively impacted in Northern Nigeria:

75%

Of poor households are in Northern Nigeria

54%

Of Nigeria’s population lives in the North

80%

Of landmass is in Northern Nigeria

Conclusion and Recommendations

The research reveals a clear connection between climate change and the worsening food security crisis in Northern Nigeria. Without urgent intervention, the situation will deteriorate further as temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns become more unpredictable.