Temperature Increases

If emissions continue as planned, 72% of Nigeria, projected to be home to 300 million Nigerians by 2070, would have an annual temperature of 29°C or more. Rapid emissions cuts would reduce this to 14% of the country.

Under current policies, southern Nigeria would see over 200 additional hot nights annually (hotter than 90% of current nights). Hot nights prevent the human body from resting and recovering, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses or death.

Changing Rainfall Patterns

Climate change is already altering the rainy season in Nigeria. Devastating floods, such as those that hit Nigeria in 2022 and 2024, were made worse by climate change and are “no longer rare” in today’s already changed climate.

The number of people displaced by river floods in Nigeria would grow by 500%, as the magnitude and frequency of floods rise.

Crop Yield Declines

Based on changes in average conditions, key crops like sorghum, maize, rice, millet, and cassava could decline by 7%-42%, depending on the crop and the speed of global emissions cuts.

Nigerian children born in 2020 would experience three times more crop failures than those born in 1960 without faster emissions cuts.

Disease and Child Health

With current emissions policies, there is a predicted 20-25% increase in newborn deaths in Nigeria, and a 10-15% rise in child wasting.

Floods increase the risk of waterborne diseases like cholera and typhoid spreading in Nigeria. They can injure and kill people, and often damage and disrupt healthcare provision.

Biodiversity Loss

Current levels of warming are reducing biodiversity by 20%, with about 70% biodiversity loss predicted under current emissions policies.

With 62% of rural Africans directly dependent on natural ecosystems, and natural forests contributing 21% of rural household income in Africa, the impact of biodiversity loss would be substantial.

Adaptation Strategies

A combination of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and local adaptation to a changing climate is essential for a thriving Nigeria.

Key Adaptation Areas:

• Stop gas flaring: Nigeria is one of the nations that flares the most gas globally, causing environmental damage and significant health problems.
• Improve power infrastructure: Strengthening the electrical grid is crucial to prevent blackouts during heatwaves.
• Develop early warning systems: Systems to alert the public to extreme weather events can save lives and reduce health impacts.
• Increase green space in urban areas: Adding shade trees and green spaces can reduce the “urban heat island” effect by 3-5°C.
• Nature-based solutions: Restoring mangroves, increasing urban green space, and conserving forests offer multiple benefits for low costs.
• Support vulnerable populations: Prioritizing support for those most affected by climate impacts, including women farmers who produce 60-80% of Nigeria’s food.